After front-loading shipments during the first quarter, shippers hit the pause button on additional shipments after the April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement on trade partners. Within days of pausing shipments, the number of blank sailings jumped as transpacific volumes dried up.
A blank sailing is a scheduled voyage that is canceled or on which scheduled ports of a rotation are skipped. Carriers use blank sailings for a variety of reasons, including to shore up rates when demand is off.
Just nine days later, the U.S. issued a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs. A few weeks after that, a trade agreement was reached between the U.S. and China, reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%. This abrupt shift set the stage for a dramatic rebound.
From Pause to Boom
From a pause in April to what now appears to be a boom as shippers rush to bring shipments into the US before the 90-day grace period ends in July and before any other tariffs potentially impact shipments. Bookings have spiked since the announcement of the U.S.-China agreement.
“We have seen over the last couple of days that bookings have been up more than 50% compared to what we saw over the last four weeks,” said Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen during a May 14 analyst call. “They are also up in double-digit percentages compared to the period before the tariffs.”
This increase is a welcome sign for carriers. Not only could it reduce the number of blank sailings, but it may also prompt carriers to restore capacity that had previously shifted to other trade lanes and to pursue rate increases.
Possible Volume Surge
Depending on how much cargo enters the U.S. in the coming weeks, the volume surge could stress port infrastructure and inland networks, which, in turn, could lead to additional costs and possible delays in deliveries that may be similar, but not as extreme to what was experienced during COVID-19.
According to the Journal of Commerce, BNSF Railway and Union Pacific Railroad (UP) are planning for possible volume surges.
“The month of June is where we think that air pocket will hit [most],” Jon Gabriel, BNSF’s group vice president of intermodal, told the Journal of Commerce. “Coming out of the fourth of July is when what’s being put on vessels now would all start to hit. In July and August, largely speaking.”
Warehousing could also be impacted as shippers potentially stockpile inventory. “A disconnected world will require more warehouse space not less,” Prologis president Dan Letter told analysts last month.
How long this possible surge lasts is unknown but when it ends, shippers will hit the pause button once again if tariffs, supply chain rates, and other charges are still high and more importantly, if shippers’ customers pull back on spending.
Don’t Manage Alone
In this climate of volatility, shippers must strengthen their relationships with trusted supply chain partners especially logistics service providers, freight forwarders, and third-party logistics companies (3PLs). These partnerships provide critical support in navigating fluctuating tariffs, shifting capacity, and unexpected demand changes.
Pegasus Logistics Group is one such partner that helps shippers stay agile and prepared for disruption. With our proactive approach, real-time visibility tools, and extensive transportation and warehousing network, we equip clients to make informed decisions fast. Whether it’s rerouting freight, expediting documentation, or adjusting to evolving customs requirements, our team is built for adaptability.
Partnerships like these allow stakeholders to share forecasts, access broader networks, and align expectations. Shippers can reduce lead times, buffer inventory more efficiently, and contain costs by collaborating through data-sharing, shipment tracking, performance metrics, and operational benchmarks.
In times of uncertainty, responsiveness is everything. And the ability to pivot quickly is often the difference between a costly disruption and a well-managed shift.
Conclusion
The current surge in shipments fueled by temporary tariff relief underscores just how unpredictable the global trade environment remains. While it presents a short-term opportunity for carriers and logistics providers, it also introduces risks of congestion, delays, and higher costs across the supply chain.
As shippers prepare for what’s next, the path forward demands more than short-term reaction. It requires a resilient, well-connected logistics strategy and the support of experienced partners who can guide you through the unknown.
The 90-day grace period is just that: a limited window. When it closes, the only certainty is that the market will shift again. Now is the time to prepare, plan, and partner wisely.